A New Home for Golf Betting- www.golfbettinghq.com !

As sad as I am to say, I have decided to stop posting on lewispuntingyear.blogspot.com...

That's because I have set up a fully fledged golf betting tips website, and will be filling it with great content from now on!

I know that there's countless golf tips websites all over the internet, many of whom are far better than me at picking winners and therefore instead of trying to compete with them, I am going to focus the new site on providing great information for you to use to make your own informed decisions on who you want to back- as well as continuing with posts along the same lines as my Monday Lessons.

The plan is to write similar previews to before, with a focus on information rather than specific tips, although I will post who I back so you can all see how well (or badly!) I'm doing!

I also plan to add in some features and reviews on as many great resources I can find, and then any other features I can think of along the way!

Hopefully anybody that reads this blog will find it an even better place to head for all your golf betting needs!

The first week's focus is on the Masters (doesn't get much better than that!) for which I have taken the scientific approach and hopefully that will find us some winners!

I hope to see you there at www.golfbettinghq.com !

Valero Texas Open 2013 Betting Preview

Before the massive excitement of next week hits us, the PGA Tour heads to San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. It's the last chance to see some form before deciding on those Masters picks- although I'm sure most people out there already have a pretty good idea of who they are going to back, and good performances this week will likely bring prices in and ruin any value the player had anyway!

The course this week is 7,522 yards, and after averaging a brutal 74 strokes last year, has seen some changes: some of the greens have been flattened out, run-off areas around the greens have been made smaller and also the rough is going to be an inch shorter. This should mean that we see more birdies this year, however it looks like a great test still and there will be an emphasis on finding fairways and greens.

Rory McIlroy has made a late change to his playing schedule to be here this week in order to get some extra competitive golf under his belt before Augusta, although I am going to ignore the top 3 in the betting as they are real contenders for next week and I can see this being more of a warm-up / practice for them rather than really worrying about the win.

My first pick this week is Freddie Jacobson- he has been having a really solid year so far and has results of 18th, 5th and 2nd in the last 3 years here, which shows he knows how to play the course. With slightly less depth in this field than the last few weeks, he has the chance to go well here. He's relatively short at 27/1, but  I feel the risk is worth it with an each-way placing certainly on the cards.

I was going to avoid players that I thought had any chance at the Masters, but with relatively few wins on the PGA Tour, and as a player who thrives off there being a buzz around him, I can't see Ian Poulter holding back this week. He's a great driver of the ball, and due to the fact he thrives off confidence and what his former coach called the 'peackock effect' I don't think he'll be worried about going into Augusta having won here. He's been playing well this year and is straight off the tee, so could do well this week.

Joining the crowd with the obvious choice this week, I'm going to back Brendan Steele at 50/1. He won this in 2011 and came 4th last year, so clearly loves it here- and with a win possibly propelling him to the heights of Augusta he's certainly going to have plenty of motivation.

My next two picks are horses for courses and I will be backing Charley Hoffman and Charlie Wi. Hoffman has carded results of 13th, 2nd and 6th in the previous 3 years as well as picking up a 20th last week, so he is clearly playing OK. He also picked up T-2 in GIR last year, which will be key to a good performance this week. Charlie Wi has also shown good form here and likes the course- so at 100/1 a repeat performance of 4th last year would definitely be welcome.

My picks for the week:

• 1.75pt ew Freddie Jacobson at 26.0
• 1.75pt ew Ian Poulter at 29.0
• 1pt ew Brendan Steele at 51.0
• 1pt ew Charley Hoffman at 41.0
• 0.5pt ew Charlie Wi at 101.0

All at Coral- paying 5 places.

Good luck everyone!

Maybank Malaysia Open 2013

After a week off due to getting a bit obsessed with the Cheltenham festival it's back to the golf this week with the Malaysia Open. Thanks to Champagne Fever, Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth plus a few bookie bonuses thrown in, the betting bank is now well and truly set for the year and can now be focussed back on getting some golf winners!

This week we head to Malaysia, with Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel heading the field- both at pretty short prices- but it's interesting that they've decided to fly all the way out here when they could have played at Bay Hill and then had a week off before the Masters without the rigours of international travel and jet-lag that comes with it. It's not like they need the money and therefore they must fancy it this week. They will definitely be a danger this week, but I think I'm going to look for some value further down the field where an e/w place will still pay out.

My first pick this week is going to be Chris Wood. It looks like he's set for a good year this season, and has grabbed his first win as well as the chance to play in some World Golf Championships and in an interview on the Euro Tour podcast he sounded as though it had really given him some confidence. He came 4th in Thailand last week, even after arriving late and not even managing a practice round which shows his game is in good nick, and he will be really motivated to perform in order to qualify for the masters.

Next up is Ricardo Santos who as been playing so well this year, and I'm happy to take the missed cut last week as an anomaly- especially as it's pushed his price out to 60/1, which I think offers great value at 15/1 for a top-5 when he's been so consistent this year.

Another player having a good year is Thonghai Jaidee, who has also posted top-20s in 3 of the last 4 times he's played this tournament including a 2nd in 2006. In an interview he has said that playing in Malaysia feels like playing at home, and with this season showing what an advantage that can be in South Africa and India- I think 40/1 is a good price.

Off piste....

My final pick this week is going to be in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is based purely on a very basic odds calculation- but for me sums up the point of value betting, and goes to show that it's not always big prices that offer value.

Tiger Woods has won at Bay Hill for 7 out of 12 times the tournament has been played since 2000. That means that his price would have needed to be only 1.58 in each of these in order to break even. Given that he's available at  3/1, and has already won twice this year- that for me is value, and I will be getting on some of that. Given that lately he has won so many of his titles on courses he loves I really think he is a value bet this week.

My picks this week:

• 1pt e/w Chris Wood at 36.0 (Various)
• 1pt e/w Ricardo Santos at 61.0 (Totesport)
• 1pt e/w Thongchai Jaidee at 41.0 (Various)
• 4 pts win Tiger Woods at 4.0 (Various)

WGC Cadillac Championship Tips

It's the second WGC event of the year this week as we head to the Blue Monster at Doral for the Cadillac Championship- won last year by Justin Rose. With a top class field of 60 players there is plenty of quality to choose from and hopefully with some big names it will also mean there is some value a bit further down the field.

The course isn't the hardest on tour apart from the treacherous 18th, and if the wind doesn't get up we can expect to see some low scores. We are now fairly well into the season and this coupled with the fact that Doral has been a long standing venue on the PGA Tour we have plenty of form to go on.

My first pick this week is going to be Matt Kuchar. Although he won the last WGC, I don't really consider this to be going for back to back wins due to the matchplay format and also having a two week break since that win. He has always been a really solid player who often finishes well, and has now started to turn those high finishes into some top class wins. Along similar lines to Darren Fichardt last week, I feel he should be up there with the favourites and the fact that he's available at 21 represents good value in my eyes.

Next up is on the list is Steve Stricker who is now playing a very limited schedule and will therefore will have chosen events he thinks he'll play well in and work towards them. He played well in the matchplay and gained a 2nd in his previous outing before that, as well as posting top-20s here for the last 5 years on the trot. We can trust him to hole plenty of putts which will be key if scoring goes low, and at 46 I think those odds are huge for a proven winner.

I also like Jason Day this week and will be backing him at the 51 available with BetVictor. He played really well in the matchplay, and if he holes a few more putts this week he should score well. He is a really promising young player and a big win such as this would not be a surprise to anybody. Two top-10s on his previous 3 strokeplay starts combined with a solid driving game means his price definitely represents good value to me.

I'll also take Robert Garrigus at the 51 available across the board. He has no previous experience of this course, but has shown some promising form so far this season and could easily grab himself a win this year. He will be on a confidence high after a good performance at the matchplay and could be a dark horse this week.

Finally, a bit of a longshot on a player who hasn't shown much form this season. Francesco Molinari has been a bit lacking of late, but he is a really quality player and has the kind of solid game required to do well here. He has also recorded top-15s in all three of his starts here including 3rd in 2011. I am willing to risk a small stake on him at 91 with BetVictor.

My picks this week:

• 2pts e/w Matt Kuchar at 21 (General)
• 1pts e/w Steve Stricker at 46 (SkyBet & BetVictor)
• 0.75pts e/w Jason Day at 51 (BetVictor)
• 0.75pts e/w Robert Garrigus at 51 (General)
• 0.5pts e/w Francesco Molinari at 91 (BetVictor) 

Monday thoughts...

It was another painfully close week at the Tshwane Open with Darren Fichardt being beaten into second by Dawie Van Der Walt- a player backed just 3 weeks ago! Can't complain too much as we all know how hard it is to pick winners and good to get an e/w place, but really feel Darren could have tried to put the pressure on a bit more against an unproven winner- he just seemed to play so safe!

We were also looking good with David Howell and Keith Horne at some points but they just didn't get birdies rolling in. Then there was Jeev... giving it large on Twitter how much he loved playing in South Africa and what a great 67 it was. Needless to say there have been no tweets from him since the second round! I do however think he's still one to look at in India in a couple of weeks, as it was just 3 bad holes that stunted his progress.

I'd also had a bit of a personal punt in the Honda Classic on Westwood as well as in an e/w double with Fichardt- I could have cried when seeing that ball plop in the water on 18, how selfish of him not knowing I only needed a safe par there! Oh, and I also had YE Yang!

On a serious note though, I can't see how Lee is going to be backable for a while now. As great a player as he is- he just doesn't seem to win often enough for the prices available and his short game is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

On the note of these disappointments, I was delighted to read birdieclubtipster's post today- suffering the same frustrations as me, and I think it sums up the emotions perfectly. Read it here: http://www.birdieclubtipster.blogspot.co.uk/p/19th-hole.html. He also talks about the frustration of missing out on the e/w places, but that keeping them in there is vital to keep the bank roll ticking over. This is something I have actually been thinking about this week...

What I've been learning this week:

A few weeks ago I stumbled across Mike Miller's (@SmartGolfBets) amazing(!) spreadsheets that show recent and course form and are my absolute bread and butter at the moment for pre tourney research. He also puts his own prices in there to show value bets. Would love to know the basics of creating these prices- but that's one for another post at a less busy time!

What I did notice this week is that he has also written some really good editorials- one of which is about the 'back-to-lay' (trading) approach on Betfair and it got me thinking about whether this could be a better strategy for profiting on the golf.

See Mike's site here: https://sites.google.com/site/smartgolfbets/editorials/back-to-lay---a-beginners-guide

A number of the players that let us down this week- if backed on the exchange- would have been available to trade out at a profit at some point. The thing is, if they had won, we'd have lost a big chunk of our potential profit by trading out- but it would have been guaranteed profit. There is also the risk that one bad round means no trade will come and the stake is gone forever. Or that a player finishes in the top 5, but never threatens to win, which would mean e/w would have paid out but no trade would ever become available.

There are just so many factors, but I guess that is the point of trying to come up with a winning strategy- trying to find the right combination of these factors that creates profit. After experimenting with laying the favourites / leaders a bit, I am definitely going to look a bit more into trading over the next few weeks, and compare results to backing the same players e/w.

Would love to here any readers' thoughts on this- do you have a great trading strategy- or swear by the e/w approach?! Please let me know!

Tshwane Open 2013

After the lottery of the World Matchplay, we are back to the familiar surroundings of 72 hole stokeplay this week with the Tshwane Open hosting players from the European and Sunshine Tours. There is a distinct lack of any big names in the field due to the Honda Open in America and therefore this should hopefully offer us the chance to find some value.

The venue is the Ernie Els designed Copperleaf Golf and Country Estate, on which there is no top level form to go on- therefore a mixture of stats and current form are goign to be needed. It is a really long track and with showers forecast all weekend length off the key is going to a good performance here.

My first pick this week is going to be Darren Fichardt, who won on his last time out in the European Tour and also picked up a top-10 on the Sunshine Tour last week. It's not rare for players to do well when near their home town and currently living in Centurion, he'll have all his home comforts available to him. He showed some real class when winning the Africa Open, and I'm surprised to see him available at 26 behind Van Zyl, Aiken and Mulroy in the betting. I think he should be a similar price to these guys.

My next pick is going to be Jeev Milkha Singh. He played well in Dubai when I last backed him and I think he'll have been working hard leading into the Avantha Masters in his home country in a couple of weeks. I believe the 41 available on him against this field under-estimates his chances.

My third pick is going to be David Howell- available at 41 along with Singh. He has showed some signs that he might return to the winners circle this year, and with a weak field- the fact that he's chosen to play shows that he must have a good feeling about the course.

My last pick in a week that has been really tough is going to be another South African as they have dominated these events this year.  I'm going to go with Keith Horne at 56- he's higher priced than a number of his compatriots even though many of them haven't shown much more form than him, and he has a steady season so far- with his best results coming in South Africa.

My picks this week:

• 2 pts e/w Darren Fichardt at 26 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w Jeev Milkha Singh at 41 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w David Howell at 41 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w Keith Horne at 56 (Various)

Accenture World Matchplay Betting Picks

It was so close to a great week! The blog picks had a pretty average week- with Ricardo Santos missing a short putt that would have at least given an each way payout, but over 72 holes we can't put blame on just one of those!

My good week nearly came from the e/w double that I had placed on Jaco Van Zyl and Bill Haas who both lead going into the final round and had equally shocking days. It would have paid out 435/1 which would have been very welcome indeed- thankfully Bill Haas rallied and got me the e/w payout! I like to place a few very small staked e/w doubles each week as they pay great odds for really small stakes and I have found it's pretty surprising how often they get close.

I would love to know people's thoughts on these doubles- do you think they're a good way to get that big win- or just a waste of money that would be better placed elsewhere? I'm always looking to learn and I'm sure there's some better punters out there who have some good experience of these.

Accenture World Matchplay:

This week is the first of the genuinely big-time events of the year, and a rarity in the fact that it is matchplay- so is bound to offer some exciting golf and definitely some upsets if anyone strings a bad few holes together at the wrong time.

Due to their rarity I don't actually have much experience betting on these style of events- although last year I managed to win a bit backing Nicolas Colsaerts in the European Tour equivalent. I have therefore broken my attempt of not looking at other tipsters before making my tips and have been doing a bit of research. It appears that most people (pretty logically I have to say!) are recommending backing players from across the brackets, which means that there's the chance of getting 4 people into the semis or at least your picks not knocking each other out early on. One approach I really like is from NicsPicks, which is looking to back on the exchanges and then try and trade out (read it here), and I think it's a great idea.

Bobby Jones Bracket

I found this bracket the hardest to make my pick from. I have therefore decided on 2 picks from this bracket- one as a specific attempt to get a trade- and the other as somebody I think has a chance to win. Firstly the trade, and I think at 190 Alex Noren looks good. He has a really tough match against Dustin Johnson, but DJ has not been great since his win in Hawaii and has three 1st round exits in four starts. He would then face Harrington or McDowell who also have bad records here, and if he gets through this it means we can hopefully trade out. My main pick is Jason Day at 75, who should hopefully get past an off-form Zach Johnson and then will have a great match set up against Charl Schwartzel, but 18 holes is certainly not 72 and that means the favourites are very vulnerable.

(I didn't write these subheadings in order and have just noticed how stupid the next paragraph will look after writing that last bit..!)

Gary Player Bracket

I am sure I will be the only blogger backing him this week as 13 is ridiculously short, but I'm going to put it out there that I think Tiger Woods will be extremely difficult to beat this week. Although he hasn't performed here in recent years, he has won once already this year on a course he loves- and this is another that he has had great success at. 'Tiger Woods: How I Play Golf' was my bible growing up, and in it he talks about how much he loves matchplay- and the gamesmanship that goes with it. He has a quite frankly shocking Ryder Cup record, but this week he will be playing for the United States of Tiger Woods and I think that is something he much prefers.

Sam Snead Bracket

In the Sam Snead bracket I am going to go with Tim Clark at 170. He faces a tough opponent in Adam Scott in the first round, but the Australian has not had a great record here in the last few years- and who I think is massively under priced. He has gotten through to the 3rd round in his last couple of attempts, and also had a good showing in the Sony Open. If he does get past Scott he then faces a debutant in either Olesen or Donaldson- neither of whom have much big tournament experience and if he gets past these we should have a good opportunity to trade.

Ben Hogan Bracket

Since getting knocked out in the first round here last year, Nicolas Colsaerts has won the Volvo World Matchplay Championship and played in a Ryder Cup, meaning he is going to be far more confident this year. The tournament is normally won by somebody who is known for specialising in the format and therefore the Belgian Bomber can't be ignored at 65. I think this is the weaker of the brackets, and he faces Bill Haas who may be feeling fragile after his implosion last week, and then I feel he now has what it takes to face up to face up to Rose in the next round if needed.

My picks for the week:

• 1pt Alex Noren at 190
• 1pt Jason Day at 75
• 2pt Tiger Woods at 13
• 1pt Tim Clark at 170
• 1pt Nicolas Colsaerts at 65

All at Betfair so that any trading opportunities can be taken.

Good Luck all!!