It appears again that we're looking for somebody who hits plenty of greens this week as the rough around the greens can be really punishing here, and with wet weather forecast somebody who can get it a long way off the tee is going to have an advantage with the limited roll on the fairways.
Heading the betting is Charl Schwartzel at a very short general 3/1 across the board, and the combination of the weather forecast, 6 weeks off and a missed cut last year I certainly think he is far to short to back at this price. The European Tour website news states that he has said he will only be looking to build a base for the rest of the season suggests that he possibly feels he has bigger fish to fry this year, and possibly could be worth a lay if you like your trading.
Having had a sneaky read of Steve Palmer's write up in Sainsburys while I bought my lunch today, I saw the stat that every time the Joburg Open has been played there has been somebody priced at 3 figures in the each way places and therefore it will definitely be worth looking a bit further down the field.
My first pick is somebody that has not had a previous try at the Joburg Open, but has been in really good form of late and hit a massive 84% of GIR so far in 2013. Having had top-10s in his last two outings and also at the end of last year, Steve Webster is obviously playing well at the moment and with a weaker field this week I'm going to back him at 30/1.
For the same reason as last week I am going to choose Danny Willet- also at 30/1. Even though he missed the cut he has been playing pretty well so far this year and has two top-5s here in the last 4 years so obviously feels confident at the course. Laying 17th in GIR and able to bomb it a good distance the course should suit, and he will be motivated to try and get a good result with this weaker field.
Following on from last week where Stephen Gallacher won at a course he has done well at but with pretty poor recent form, I fancy Marc Warren to have a decent week. He came 3rd here last year without showing much form and as he clearly enjoys this course I would not be surprised to see him do well here this week. Along similar lines to this bet I also feel that Jamie Elson cannot be ignored after top-5 placings in the previous two years and at 110/1 there is no way I can ignore a speculative punt on him recreating that form.
My last pick is a big longshot on Dawie Van Der Walt at a massive 291/1 with Pinnacle. He came 3rd here last year and gained a top-25 in his last Sunshine Tour outing and has had a solid amateur and college career in America. With course confidence, home support and the massive motivation to set his career on track with a good performance it could be a real opportunity for him.
My Betting Tips for the Week:
- 1pt e/w Steve Webster at 31.0 (Various)
- 1pt e/w Danny Willet at 31.0 (Stan James)
- 1pt e/w Marc Warren at 56.0 (Various)
- 1/2pt e/w Jamie Elson at 111.0 (Stan James)
- 1/2pt e/w Dawie Van Der Walt at 292 (Pinnacle)
Thanks for reading and good luck!
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