Having read through many a tipster website, blogs, newspapers and other media it seems that just about everyone in the field has been tipped up or fancied by somebody. The top end of the betting all seem to be there for a reason and those at the higher end of the odds are all apparently 'excellent value'.
For that reason I can't see there being a great amount of value to be taken this week and to be honest this tournament is wide open with every player in the field clearly capable of a win. I think we therefore need to look elsewhere for a decent chance of making some money.
Although it seems every player has been tipped for the win, there seems to be one who doesn't even fancy their own chances. More than a few tweets from a certain Mr Poulter have indicated a very heavy Christmas and flights booked on lastminute.com with RyanAir. Couple this with the fact that he's a matchplay specialist (a bloody good one at that) and is here on that merit I can see this being more of a holiday for Poults than work. This could have been an opportunity to lay the top-10 finish but there is very little in the way of price or liquidity on that front and therefore I'm feeling a spread bet coming on...
Sporting Index offer a 72 hole matchmaker market so we just need to find somebody we think will beat Ian by a few shots. Kapalua is long and wide with huge greens and there should be a fair bit of wind. It also favours players that have played here a few times. Following the twitter theme for Poulter's demise has lead me to Dustin Johnson who has been teeing it up at 7am at the plantation for the last week and seems to be in very good spirits for the tournament (along with his new red driver which he is perfectly capable of hitting 400 yards on some holes here!). His previous perfomances here have been 9th, 16th and 11th (thanks to www.golfbettingsystem.co.uk for that info) and therefore he knows how to play the course and we can hopefully be sure that even if he doesn't win he is not going to go huge and lose me lots of money.
As there isn't much to go on in terms of decent bets here I have decided to add a year long ante post effort to this week's post.
The demise of my lifelong hero over the past few years has left a void in the world of golf, which has been crying out for a new superstar. I really feel that 2013 could be the making of a new power in the sport and now that he has his $250 million (allegedly) deal under his belt he is ready to put that amazing marketing power (and swing) to use...
The week's punts:
- Sell Ian Poulter v Dustin Johnson for 1pt at -0.75 (Sporting Index)
- 3 pt Rory McIlroy to win exactly 2 majors at 11 (SkyBet)
- 1 pt Rory McIlroy to win exactly 3 majors at 41 (SkyBet)
- 1/2 pt Rory McIlroy to win exactly 4 majors at 101 (SkyBet)
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