For somebody that has gotten themselves a name as a bit of a choker, Chris Wood played the final hole in a fashion that would be more expected by his (almost) namesake. After a shaky double bogey on the 3rd he rallied to hole some great putts throughout the round, and his gutsy eagle at the last pipped Sergio Garcia and George Coetzee by one shot.
What I've learned this week:
After a second losing week I have done a lot of research into the concept of value, and also put some further thought into my staking plan.
The very nature of golf betting means that there are going to be a number of losing weeks, but as we are generally betting at quite high odds, with huge fields, it has to be accepted that the probability of winning is lower. That means that to profit over the year we can only bet on players whose odds are greater than what we believe to be their probability of winning.
I've found that over the last few weeks I've been trying to pick players based purely on whether I think they will play well and generally not focussed on the odds. I'd fallen into the trap of thinking that value was just betting at high odds, when in fact I need to look for the odds to be over what I believe they should be.
If this is done consistently then in theory a profit should be made on the basis of simple maths e.g.:
If odds of winning were 1/52 (one win in the year), and we managed to have £1 on each week at 60/1 then over a large number of years we should expect to make an average of £8 per year. It would also mean backing only one winner from 52 per year- so it goes to show that it's not too bad to have a few losing weeks!
For some great explanations of this concept visit the OLBG Betting School, which goes into a bit more detail. They also have a great tipping comp- you get £1,000 a month of play money and there's loads in cash prizes for those who do the best- visit the tipping comp at http://www.olbg.com/?tx253777 to sign up.
I have also decided that it is very difficult to have a consistent staking plan each week while combining both my outright tips and spread betting ideas and therefore I am going to do these separately. It's just too hard to control the amount of bank that is being risked and with only two e/w picks last week I really didn't give myself chance to get the high return wins needed to be successful in golf betting.
This week I am going to look at the Dubai Desert Classic and try to come up with at least an idea of what I feel the betting will look like before any prices are released, and then if there are any outside my expectations jump right on them!
A winner!
Back in early January I posted a tip on Rylan Clark to win Celebrity Big Brother at 2.22- which as the weeks went on just kept coming in and was eventually available to trade off at 1.13 so I hope a few people followed me on that!
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