Tshwane Open 2013

After the lottery of the World Matchplay, we are back to the familiar surroundings of 72 hole stokeplay this week with the Tshwane Open hosting players from the European and Sunshine Tours. There is a distinct lack of any big names in the field due to the Honda Open in America and therefore this should hopefully offer us the chance to find some value.

The venue is the Ernie Els designed Copperleaf Golf and Country Estate, on which there is no top level form to go on- therefore a mixture of stats and current form are goign to be needed. It is a really long track and with showers forecast all weekend length off the key is going to a good performance here.

My first pick this week is going to be Darren Fichardt, who won on his last time out in the European Tour and also picked up a top-10 on the Sunshine Tour last week. It's not rare for players to do well when near their home town and currently living in Centurion, he'll have all his home comforts available to him. He showed some real class when winning the Africa Open, and I'm surprised to see him available at 26 behind Van Zyl, Aiken and Mulroy in the betting. I think he should be a similar price to these guys.

My next pick is going to be Jeev Milkha Singh. He played well in Dubai when I last backed him and I think he'll have been working hard leading into the Avantha Masters in his home country in a couple of weeks. I believe the 41 available on him against this field under-estimates his chances.

My third pick is going to be David Howell- available at 41 along with Singh. He has showed some signs that he might return to the winners circle this year, and with a weak field- the fact that he's chosen to play shows that he must have a good feeling about the course.

My last pick in a week that has been really tough is going to be another South African as they have dominated these events this year.  I'm going to go with Keith Horne at 56- he's higher priced than a number of his compatriots even though many of them haven't shown much more form than him, and he has a steady season so far- with his best results coming in South Africa.

My picks this week:

• 2 pts e/w Darren Fichardt at 26 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w Jeev Milkha Singh at 41 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w David Howell at 41 (Various)
• 1 pts e/w Keith Horne at 56 (Various)

Accenture World Matchplay Betting Picks

It was so close to a great week! The blog picks had a pretty average week- with Ricardo Santos missing a short putt that would have at least given an each way payout, but over 72 holes we can't put blame on just one of those!

My good week nearly came from the e/w double that I had placed on Jaco Van Zyl and Bill Haas who both lead going into the final round and had equally shocking days. It would have paid out 435/1 which would have been very welcome indeed- thankfully Bill Haas rallied and got me the e/w payout! I like to place a few very small staked e/w doubles each week as they pay great odds for really small stakes and I have found it's pretty surprising how often they get close.

I would love to know people's thoughts on these doubles- do you think they're a good way to get that big win- or just a waste of money that would be better placed elsewhere? I'm always looking to learn and I'm sure there's some better punters out there who have some good experience of these.

Accenture World Matchplay:

This week is the first of the genuinely big-time events of the year, and a rarity in the fact that it is matchplay- so is bound to offer some exciting golf and definitely some upsets if anyone strings a bad few holes together at the wrong time.

Due to their rarity I don't actually have much experience betting on these style of events- although last year I managed to win a bit backing Nicolas Colsaerts in the European Tour equivalent. I have therefore broken my attempt of not looking at other tipsters before making my tips and have been doing a bit of research. It appears that most people (pretty logically I have to say!) are recommending backing players from across the brackets, which means that there's the chance of getting 4 people into the semis or at least your picks not knocking each other out early on. One approach I really like is from NicsPicks, which is looking to back on the exchanges and then try and trade out (read it here), and I think it's a great idea.

Bobby Jones Bracket

I found this bracket the hardest to make my pick from. I have therefore decided on 2 picks from this bracket- one as a specific attempt to get a trade- and the other as somebody I think has a chance to win. Firstly the trade, and I think at 190 Alex Noren looks good. He has a really tough match against Dustin Johnson, but DJ has not been great since his win in Hawaii and has three 1st round exits in four starts. He would then face Harrington or McDowell who also have bad records here, and if he gets through this it means we can hopefully trade out. My main pick is Jason Day at 75, who should hopefully get past an off-form Zach Johnson and then will have a great match set up against Charl Schwartzel, but 18 holes is certainly not 72 and that means the favourites are very vulnerable.

(I didn't write these subheadings in order and have just noticed how stupid the next paragraph will look after writing that last bit..!)

Gary Player Bracket

I am sure I will be the only blogger backing him this week as 13 is ridiculously short, but I'm going to put it out there that I think Tiger Woods will be extremely difficult to beat this week. Although he hasn't performed here in recent years, he has won once already this year on a course he loves- and this is another that he has had great success at. 'Tiger Woods: How I Play Golf' was my bible growing up, and in it he talks about how much he loves matchplay- and the gamesmanship that goes with it. He has a quite frankly shocking Ryder Cup record, but this week he will be playing for the United States of Tiger Woods and I think that is something he much prefers.

Sam Snead Bracket

In the Sam Snead bracket I am going to go with Tim Clark at 170. He faces a tough opponent in Adam Scott in the first round, but the Australian has not had a great record here in the last few years- and who I think is massively under priced. He has gotten through to the 3rd round in his last couple of attempts, and also had a good showing in the Sony Open. If he does get past Scott he then faces a debutant in either Olesen or Donaldson- neither of whom have much big tournament experience and if he gets past these we should have a good opportunity to trade.

Ben Hogan Bracket

Since getting knocked out in the first round here last year, Nicolas Colsaerts has won the Volvo World Matchplay Championship and played in a Ryder Cup, meaning he is going to be far more confident this year. The tournament is normally won by somebody who is known for specialising in the format and therefore the Belgian Bomber can't be ignored at 65. I think this is the weaker of the brackets, and he faces Bill Haas who may be feeling fragile after his implosion last week, and then I feel he now has what it takes to face up to face up to Rose in the next round if needed.

My picks for the week:

• 1pt Alex Noren at 190
• 1pt Jason Day at 75
• 2pt Tiger Woods at 13
• 1pt Tim Clark at 170
• 1pt Nicolas Colsaerts at 65

All at Betfair so that any trading opportunities can be taken.

Good Luck all!!

Africa Open 2013 Betting Tips

With the Accenture World Matchplay looming next week, the Africa Open, which is normally the inaugural event of the year has a much weaker field teeing off this week. Without the big guns here, that hopefully means that it will give some of those a bit further down the field the chance to grab a win at what is normally a very prestigious event.

The course this week is pretty short at a shade over 6,700 yards and looking at the stats from last year it looks like those that putted the best came out on top here. Another interest statistic posted by @Golf_Stats on Twitter today is that since this event has been co-sanctioned by the European Tour, Q-School graduates have finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd, so I will certainly be looking at them this week.

My first pick this week is Ricardo Santos, and although relatively short priced at 16/1, he has been banging on the door all year. With a few less proven winners in the field this week, and the kind of golf he is playing at the moment I feel that the fact he is so much of a bigger price than favourite Thomas Aiken, definitely makes him good value. Hopefully my first week being on him can bring his first win of the year.

The second player I am going to back this week is Trevor Fisher Jnr, who had a very good tournament until the closing stages last week, however he was up against the likes of Richard Sterne, Charl Schwartzel and George Coetzee- which he will not face this week. From his interview on the European Tour website it looks like he has certainly taken the positives from the experience, and feels it has given him the confidence to believe he can compete at the top. 

Next on the list is the Scotsman, David Drysdale at 35/1. I very nearly backed him last week, and was starting to get worried when he was playing well. He's a good ball striker who holes plenty of putts, and with the shorter track this week, his 280 yard average driving distance shouldn't hinder him. He's long been fancied for a win, and this week is as good a chance as any.

My final choice is based on the fact that Q-School graduates have tended to well here recently, and at 125/1 I am going to have a small punt on Bjorn Akesson. He's made a good start to his European Tour career with 3 made cuts- two of which are top-25s. This could be his chance to really stamp his name and get his career off to the perfect start. Of course motivation will be very high for him and this is another factor that makes me believe he can have a good week.

This weeks picks:

• 2pts e/w Ricardo Santos at 17.0 (Various)
• 1pt e/w Trevor Fisher Jnr at 36.0 (Various)
• 1pt e/w David Drysdale at 36.0 (Various)
• 0.5pt e/w Bjorn Akesson at 126.0 (Coral)

Sporting Bet are offering 6 places e/w this week!

Good Luck everyone!

Joburg Open 2013 Betting Tips

This week we fly to South Africa for the Joburg Open- normally the second event of the year, but taking place a bit later in 2013 and therefore meaning current form will have some more influence on picks for the week.

It appears again that we're looking for somebody who hits plenty of greens this week as the rough around the greens can be really punishing here, and with wet weather forecast somebody who can get it a long way off the tee is going to have an advantage with the limited roll on the fairways.

Heading the betting is Charl Schwartzel at a very short general 3/1 across the board, and the combination of the weather forecast, 6 weeks off and a missed cut last year I certainly think he is far to short to back at this price. The European Tour website news states that he has said he will only be looking to build a base for the rest of the season suggests that he possibly feels he has bigger fish to fry this year, and possibly could be worth a lay if you like your trading.

Having had a sneaky read of Steve Palmer's write up in Sainsburys while I bought my lunch today, I saw the stat that every time the Joburg Open has been played there has been somebody priced at 3 figures in the each way places and therefore it will definitely be worth looking a bit further down the field.

My first pick is somebody that has not had a previous try at the Joburg Open, but has been in really good form of late and hit a massive 84% of GIR so far in 2013. Having had top-10s in his last two outings and also at the end of last year, Steve Webster is obviously playing well at the moment and with a weaker field this week I'm going to back him at 30/1.

For the same reason as last week I am going to choose Danny Willet- also at 30/1. Even though he missed the cut he has been playing pretty well so far this year and has two top-5s here in the last 4 years so obviously feels confident at the course. Laying 17th in GIR and able to bomb it a good distance the course should suit, and he will be motivated to try and get a good result with this weaker field.

Following on from last week where Stephen Gallacher won at a course he has done well at but with pretty poor recent form, I fancy Marc Warren to have a decent week. He came 3rd here last year without showing much form and as he clearly enjoys this course I would not be surprised to see him do well here this week. Along similar lines to this bet I also feel that Jamie Elson cannot be ignored after top-5 placings in the previous two years and at 110/1 there is no way I can ignore a speculative punt on him recreating that form.

My last pick is a big longshot on Dawie Van Der Walt at a massive 291/1 with Pinnacle. He came 3rd here last year and gained a top-25 in his last Sunshine Tour outing and has had a solid amateur and college career in America. With course confidence, home support and the massive motivation to set his career on track with a good performance it could be a real opportunity for him.

My Betting Tips for the Week:

• 1pt e/w Steve Webster at 31.0 (Various)
• 1pt e/w Danny Willet at 31.0 (Stan James)
• 1pt e/w Marc Warren at 56.0 (Various)
• 1/2pt e/w Jamie Elson at 111.0 (Stan James)
• 1/2pt e/w Dawie Van Der Walt at 292 (Pinnacle)

Thanks for reading and good luck!

Desert Classic review and my Monday Lesson

Stephen Gallacher showed the importance of course form this week with a 3 shot victory from Richard Sterne in Dubai. He has not had the best start to 2013 with 59th and MC, but had shown some signs of form at the end of last year. He had also been 2nd here in 2012 with a top-10 in 2011, making it seem like a missed opportunity for not picking him up... but then if we had such hindsight there would be no bookies left, and we wouldn't be able to beat them even occasionally!

My picks were looking relatively good until they trailed off over the weekend, and I was left particularly frustrated with Paul Casey who had a really good start but just didn't keep up with the scoring as the week went on. I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to justify him again for a while unless there's some major increases in his price. Watch him go and win now!

We were also so close with Jeev Milkha Singh, who was in the each-way places if it wasn't for a double bogey at the 5th which derailed him a bit. I still think it was a good call though, and he was well worthy of his price.

What I've been learning this week...

This week I've been doing some research into bank roll management, which is a pretty fundamental aspect of being a successful bettor along with being able to recognise value.

There are many theories as to how much of your bankroll should be staked on each bet, and to be honest I haven't gotten a full grasp of these myself yet. Therefore it will be an ongoing learning project and once I have gotten in down will write up how I've gotten on.

What I have been realising over the weeks however, is that it is just not possible to be successful if you're not keeping proper tabs on money being used for betting, and trying to manage it from your bank account along with the weekly food shop or electricity bills. What is needed is a separate account which is purely for betting and can be managed as such. This also means that losses are limited and discipline is improved as you are not going to want to risk this bank roll on any 'dead certs' whereas just depositing straight from the current account sometimes doesn't feel like real money- until you lose!

I have started using Moneybookers, which is an online wallet (similar to Paypal) specifically designed for betting. It is accepted universally by bookmakers, and offers a great way to keep that all important bankroll in one place- and to keep tabs on it. It also offers much quicker withdrawals, which mitigates that temptation to leave money in accounts and fritter it on Jeff Stelling Saturday afternoons.

Building this bankroll can be hard, and normally requires a pretty decent capital investment if you are wanting to be serious and make it survive a few losing weeks but there is one excellent way to do this, and one which  I have used to amazing success... sign up bonuses.

Last year, I have to admit that I bought into a few betting systems- and I have learned the hard way that they are a pretty big waste of money! However on the review sites and also after a bit of research I came across the  Bonus Bagging Service. I know with a bit of research you can learn how to make money with matched betting but at the end of the day, it's a bit of a mission!

I paid about £30 for this service, but I had made it back within a few hours and a year later I am still completing the many 'bonus bags'. The service is run by a guy called Mike, and basically you click that you want a new bet, he sends exactly what to put on and when the bonus is paid in he then emails you the bet to withdraw the bonus. Easy! He is really helpful and replies to any questions really quickly, as well as sending through emails pretty regularly of reloads and how to bag these. It's always totally risk free and is guaranteed profits.

I honestly have no connection with this at all, and this is not advertising- I'm just trying to offer some genuine value with my blog! I want you to check it out because I love beating the bookies!

Thanks for reading, and let me know your thoughts! Any great tips on managing / building a bank roll?