Maybank Malaysia Open 2013

After a week off due to getting a bit obsessed with the Cheltenham festival it's back to the golf this week with the Malaysia Open. Thanks to Champagne Fever, Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth plus a few bookie bonuses thrown in, the betting bank is now well and truly set for the year and can now be focussed back on getting some golf winners!

This week we head to Malaysia, with Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel heading the field- both at pretty short prices- but it's interesting that they've decided to fly all the way out here when they could have played at Bay Hill and then had a week off before the Masters without the rigours of international travel and jet-lag that comes with it. It's not like they need the money and therefore they must fancy it this week. They will definitely be a danger this week, but I think I'm going to look for some value further down the field where an e/w place will still pay out.

My first pick this week is going to be Chris Wood. It looks like he's set for a good year this season, and has grabbed his first win as well as the chance to play in some World Golf Championships and in an interview on the Euro Tour podcast he sounded as though it had really given him some confidence. He came 4th in Thailand last week, even after arriving late and not even managing a practice round which shows his game is in good nick, and he will be really motivated to perform in order to qualify for the masters.

Next up is Ricardo Santos who as been playing so well this year, and I'm happy to take the missed cut last week as an anomaly- especially as it's pushed his price out to 60/1, which I think offers great value at 15/1 for a top-5 when he's been so consistent this year.

Another player having a good year is Thonghai Jaidee, who has also posted top-20s in 3 of the last 4 times he's played this tournament including a 2nd in 2006. In an interview he has said that playing in Malaysia feels like playing at home, and with this season showing what an advantage that can be in South Africa and India- I think 40/1 is a good price.

Off piste....

My final pick this week is going to be in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is based purely on a very basic odds calculation- but for me sums up the point of value betting, and goes to show that it's not always big prices that offer value.

Tiger Woods has won at Bay Hill for 7 out of 12 times the tournament has been played since 2000. That means that his price would have needed to be only 1.58 in each of these in order to break even. Given that he's available at  3/1, and has already won twice this year- that for me is value, and I will be getting on some of that. Given that lately he has won so many of his titles on courses he loves I really think he is a value bet this week.

My picks this week:

• 1pt e/w Chris Wood at 36.0 (Various)
• 1pt e/w Ricardo Santos at 61.0 (Totesport)
• 1pt e/w Thongchai Jaidee at 41.0 (Various)
• 4 pts win Tiger Woods at 4.0 (Various)

WGC Cadillac Championship Tips

It's the second WGC event of the year this week as we head to the Blue Monster at Doral for the Cadillac Championship- won last year by Justin Rose. With a top class field of 60 players there is plenty of quality to choose from and hopefully with some big names it will also mean there is some value a bit further down the field.

The course isn't the hardest on tour apart from the treacherous 18th, and if the wind doesn't get up we can expect to see some low scores. We are now fairly well into the season and this coupled with the fact that Doral has been a long standing venue on the PGA Tour we have plenty of form to go on.

My first pick this week is going to be Matt Kuchar. Although he won the last WGC, I don't really consider this to be going for back to back wins due to the matchplay format and also having a two week break since that win. He has always been a really solid player who often finishes well, and has now started to turn those high finishes into some top class wins. Along similar lines to Darren Fichardt last week, I feel he should be up there with the favourites and the fact that he's available at 21 represents good value in my eyes.

Next up is on the list is Steve Stricker who is now playing a very limited schedule and will therefore will have chosen events he thinks he'll play well in and work towards them. He played well in the matchplay and gained a 2nd in his previous outing before that, as well as posting top-20s here for the last 5 years on the trot. We can trust him to hole plenty of putts which will be key if scoring goes low, and at 46 I think those odds are huge for a proven winner.

I also like Jason Day this week and will be backing him at the 51 available with BetVictor. He played really well in the matchplay, and if he holes a few more putts this week he should score well. He is a really promising young player and a big win such as this would not be a surprise to anybody. Two top-10s on his previous 3 strokeplay starts combined with a solid driving game means his price definitely represents good value to me.

I'll also take Robert Garrigus at the 51 available across the board. He has no previous experience of this course, but has shown some promising form so far this season and could easily grab himself a win this year. He will be on a confidence high after a good performance at the matchplay and could be a dark horse this week.

Finally, a bit of a longshot on a player who hasn't shown much form this season. Francesco Molinari has been a bit lacking of late, but he is a really quality player and has the kind of solid game required to do well here. He has also recorded top-15s in all three of his starts here including 3rd in 2011. I am willing to risk a small stake on him at 91 with BetVictor.

My picks this week:

• 2pts e/w Matt Kuchar at 21 (General)
• 1pts e/w Steve Stricker at 46 (SkyBet & BetVictor)
• 0.75pts e/w Jason Day at 51 (BetVictor)
• 0.75pts e/w Robert Garrigus at 51 (General)
• 0.5pts e/w Francesco Molinari at 91 (BetVictor) 

Monday thoughts...

It was another painfully close week at the Tshwane Open with Darren Fichardt being beaten into second by Dawie Van Der Walt- a player backed just 3 weeks ago! Can't complain too much as we all know how hard it is to pick winners and good to get an e/w place, but really feel Darren could have tried to put the pressure on a bit more against an unproven winner- he just seemed to play so safe!

We were also looking good with David Howell and Keith Horne at some points but they just didn't get birdies rolling in. Then there was Jeev... giving it large on Twitter how much he loved playing in South Africa and what a great 67 it was. Needless to say there have been no tweets from him since the second round! I do however think he's still one to look at in India in a couple of weeks, as it was just 3 bad holes that stunted his progress.

I'd also had a bit of a personal punt in the Honda Classic on Westwood as well as in an e/w double with Fichardt- I could have cried when seeing that ball plop in the water on 18, how selfish of him not knowing I only needed a safe par there! Oh, and I also had YE Yang!

On a serious note though, I can't see how Lee is going to be backable for a while now. As great a player as he is- he just doesn't seem to win often enough for the prices available and his short game is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy.

On the note of these disappointments, I was delighted to read birdieclubtipster's post today- suffering the same frustrations as me, and I think it sums up the emotions perfectly. Read it here: http://www.birdieclubtipster.blogspot.co.uk/p/19th-hole.html. He also talks about the frustration of missing out on the e/w places, but that keeping them in there is vital to keep the bank roll ticking over. This is something I have actually been thinking about this week...

What I've been learning this week:

A few weeks ago I stumbled across Mike Miller's (@SmartGolfBets) amazing(!) spreadsheets that show recent and course form and are my absolute bread and butter at the moment for pre tourney research. He also puts his own prices in there to show value bets. Would love to know the basics of creating these prices- but that's one for another post at a less busy time!

What I did notice this week is that he has also written some really good editorials- one of which is about the 'back-to-lay' (trading) approach on Betfair and it got me thinking about whether this could be a better strategy for profiting on the golf.

See Mike's site here: https://sites.google.com/site/smartgolfbets/editorials/back-to-lay---a-beginners-guide

A number of the players that let us down this week- if backed on the exchange- would have been available to trade out at a profit at some point. The thing is, if they had won, we'd have lost a big chunk of our potential profit by trading out- but it would have been guaranteed profit. There is also the risk that one bad round means no trade will come and the stake is gone forever. Or that a player finishes in the top 5, but never threatens to win, which would mean e/w would have paid out but no trade would ever become available.

There are just so many factors, but I guess that is the point of trying to come up with a winning strategy- trying to find the right combination of these factors that creates profit. After experimenting with laying the favourites / leaders a bit, I am definitely going to look a bit more into trading over the next few weeks, and compare results to backing the same players e/w.

Would love to here any readers' thoughts on this- do you have a great trading strategy- or swear by the e/w approach?! Please let me know!