My good week nearly came from the e/w double that I had placed on Jaco Van Zyl and Bill Haas who both lead going into the final round and had equally shocking days. It would have paid out 435/1 which would have been very welcome indeed- thankfully Bill Haas rallied and got me the e/w payout! I like to place a few very small staked e/w doubles each week as they pay great odds for really small stakes and I have found it's pretty surprising how often they get close.
I would love to know people's thoughts on these doubles- do you think they're a good way to get that big win- or just a waste of money that would be better placed elsewhere? I'm always looking to learn and I'm sure there's some better punters out there who have some good experience of these.
Accenture World Matchplay:
This week is the first of the genuinely big-time events of the year, and a rarity in the fact that it is matchplay- so is bound to offer some exciting golf and definitely some upsets if anyone strings a bad few holes together at the wrong time.
Due to their rarity I don't actually have much experience betting on these style of events- although last year I managed to win a bit backing Nicolas Colsaerts in the European Tour equivalent. I have therefore broken my attempt of not looking at other tipsters before making my tips and have been doing a bit of research. It appears that most people (pretty logically I have to say!) are recommending backing players from across the brackets, which means that there's the chance of getting 4 people into the semis or at least your picks not knocking each other out early on. One approach I really like is from NicsPicks, which is looking to back on the exchanges and then try and trade out (read it here), and I think it's a great idea.
Bobby Jones Bracket
I found this bracket the hardest to make my pick from. I have therefore decided on 2 picks from this bracket- one as a specific attempt to get a trade- and the other as somebody I think has a chance to win. Firstly the trade, and I think at 190 Alex Noren looks good. He has a really tough match against Dustin Johnson, but DJ has not been great since his win in Hawaii and has three 1st round exits in four starts. He would then face Harrington or McDowell who also have bad records here, and if he gets through this it means we can hopefully trade out. My main pick is Jason Day at 75, who should hopefully get past an off-form Zach Johnson and then will have a great match set up against Charl Schwartzel, but 18 holes is certainly not 72 and that means the favourites are very vulnerable.
(I didn't write these subheadings in order and have just noticed how stupid the next paragraph will look after writing that last bit..!)
Gary Player Bracket
I am sure I will be the only blogger backing him this week as 13 is ridiculously short, but I'm going to put it out there that I think Tiger Woods will be extremely difficult to beat this week. Although he hasn't performed here in recent years, he has won once already this year on a course he loves- and this is another that he has had great success at. 'Tiger Woods: How I Play Golf' was my bible growing up, and in it he talks about how much he loves matchplay- and the gamesmanship that goes with it. He has a quite frankly shocking Ryder Cup record, but this week he will be playing for the United States of Tiger Woods and I think that is something he much prefers.
Sam Snead Bracket
In the Sam Snead bracket I am going to go with Tim Clark at 170. He faces a tough opponent in Adam Scott in the first round, but the Australian has not had a great record here in the last few years- and who I think is massively under priced. He has gotten through to the 3rd round in his last couple of attempts, and also had a good showing in the Sony Open. If he does get past Scott he then faces a debutant in either Olesen or Donaldson- neither of whom have much big tournament experience and if he gets past these we should have a good opportunity to trade.
Ben Hogan Bracket
Since getting knocked out in the first round here last year, Nicolas Colsaerts has won the Volvo World Matchplay Championship and played in a Ryder Cup, meaning he is going to be far more confident this year. The tournament is normally won by somebody who is known for specialising in the format and therefore the Belgian Bomber can't be ignored at 65. I think this is the weaker of the brackets, and he faces Bill Haas who may be feeling fragile after his implosion last week, and then I feel he now has what it takes to face up to face up to Rose in the next round if needed.
My picks for the week:
- 1pt Alex Noren at 190
- 1pt Jason Day at 75
- 2pt Tiger Woods at 13
- 1pt Tim Clark at 170
- 1pt Nicolas Colsaerts at 65
All at Betfair so that any trading opportunities can be taken.
Good Luck all!!
Thank you so much for this awesome post. I really love it.
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