This week we head to Malaysia, with Luke Donald and Charl Schwartzel heading the field- both at pretty short prices- but it's interesting that they've decided to fly all the way out here when they could have played at Bay Hill and then had a week off before the Masters without the rigours of international travel and jet-lag that comes with it. It's not like they need the money and therefore they must fancy it this week. They will definitely be a danger this week, but I think I'm going to look for some value further down the field where an e/w place will still pay out.
My first pick this week is going to be Chris Wood. It looks like he's set for a good year this season, and has grabbed his first win as well as the chance to play in some World Golf Championships and in an interview on the Euro Tour podcast he sounded as though it had really given him some confidence. He came 4th in Thailand last week, even after arriving late and not even managing a practice round which shows his game is in good nick, and he will be really motivated to perform in order to qualify for the masters.
Next up is Ricardo Santos who as been playing so well this year, and I'm happy to take the missed cut last week as an anomaly- especially as it's pushed his price out to 60/1, which I think offers great value at 15/1 for a top-5 when he's been so consistent this year.
Another player having a good year is Thonghai Jaidee, who has also posted top-20s in 3 of the last 4 times he's played this tournament including a 2nd in 2006. In an interview he has said that playing in Malaysia feels like playing at home, and with this season showing what an advantage that can be in South Africa and India- I think 40/1 is a good price.
Off piste....
My final pick this week is going to be in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and is based purely on a very basic odds calculation- but for me sums up the point of value betting, and goes to show that it's not always big prices that offer value.
Tiger Woods has won at Bay Hill for 7 out of 12 times the tournament has been played since 2000. That means that his price would have needed to be only 1.58 in each of these in order to break even. Given that he's available at 3/1, and has already won twice this year- that for me is value, and I will be getting on some of that. Given that lately he has won so many of his titles on courses he loves I really think he is a value bet this week.
My picks this week:
- 1pt e/w Chris Wood at 36.0 (Various)
- 1pt e/w Ricardo Santos at 61.0 (Totesport)
- 1pt e/w Thongchai Jaidee at 41.0 (Various)
- 4 pts win Tiger Woods at 4.0 (Various)
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